Make Believe Mailer 60: 15 2022 Songs Hinting Where J-pop Goes Next

We Aren't Over Last Year Yet

The trend in J-pop in 2022 was something approaching chaos. As I wrote about in a year-in-review feature for The Japan Times, the most influential forces for music in the country over the last 12 months were TikTok and anime, both of which thrive on the unexpected. The prior allows users themselves to dictate what songs — or snippets of songs — take off. The latter features a bit more control, but it still falls on consumers to dictate what actually constitutes a hit, which actually means further distance from the actual music itself (hope the series you are attached to is a hit, in other words).

Predicting trends or future “hits” is a fool’s quest in the 2020s. And yet! Here I am, bumbling about the Substack text editor trying to decode anything about the months ahead. While tougher than ever to divine, developments both major and (seemingly) minor offer at least clues to where J-pop is heading in 2023.

Here are 15 2022 songs providing a preview of where the nation’s pop industry moves next, both sonically and socially.

Suiyoubi No Campanella — “Edison”

The easy path in discussing “Edison” is to reiterate how important TikTok is to modern J-pop breakthroughs. Thanks to teens thinking up hand dances going along to this tune’s hook, the second era of the Suiyoubi No Campanella project registered the biggest by-pure-data hit of its existence. Despite coming out in a much more fragmented entertainment industry, “Edison” proved a definite hit — six years ago, the KOM_I version of the group felt like they made it by appearing on TV with SMAP. But how many people saw that, and what impact did that leave? Today, the Utaha incarnation can just point to “618 million” on TikTok and rest its case…even if that isn’t totally telling.

But I think “Edison” also represents a greater mood shift in J-pop. The first two years of the 2020s were marked by gloominess and eventual lashing out. Yet emotions calmed down in 2022, and could get downright upbeat, whether through Fujii Kaze’s no-worries mantras or Mrs. Green Apple’s grating pep-team pop¹. Even YOASOBI and Ado sounded happier this year! The entirety of the new Suiyoubi No Campanella provides a blueprint to understanding younger listeners in Japan, both via the TikTok-design of certain songs and the straight-up genre madcap of others. “Edison” offers a next emotional step — the kids have been bummed out, angry and now vaguely optimistic…so why not become masters of their own destiny? Despite how it became popular, it’s a song about being wholly original and making something all your own, rejecting familiar virality and cookie-cutter-ness in favor of the new. I think this is the attitude that rises up in the months ahead.

Peterparker69 — “Flight To Mumbai”

Though hey, younger creators still need inspiration to figure out their own voice. And here’s a great candidate for a surprise breakout. Despite what the name might imply about the seriousness of their work, Peterparker69 is a deeply heart-on-sleeve project, with “Flight To Mumbai” being a surprisingly sweet ode to wanting to “get out of the lowlife” (see also “Tours”). More tellingly, I think the group’s sonic approach could be a great alternative to the more blown-out sounds of “hyperpop,” providing plenty of weirdness but leaving space for clear melodies to grasp on to. They’ve already scored an Apple ad — here’s a potential ground-zero for building a new pop sound.

imase — “Night Dancer”

Speaking of shifts…those early COVID years revealed a big desire from listeners stuck inside for intimacy, allowing for a new generation of acoustic singer/songwriter to flourish via YouTube channels like THE FIRST TAKE. But guess what??? It’s 2023, we can go wherever we want and stay out however late we’d like to, and can happily ignore current case counts to our heart’s content! The people want to move. Sorry guitar bros, beats are back. Even THE FIRST TAKE is loosening up.

They’ll always be space for the stripped-down guitar sounds of Yuuri or Tani Yuuki, and I actually think audiences still value the quality of great singing, which is what propelled all of them forward. Now, though, they want music that moves them too. There’s an alternate universe where back-half-2022 hits like Natori’s “Overdose” or imase’s “NIGHT DANCER” (above) exist as spacious guitar tunes, but I think they took off because they added dance floor energy into the mix. That’s something folks will still want, even if the emotions are still raw. Sad people dance too, after all.

LANA — “PULL UP”

I’m still on this record. Global pop trends plus the inevitable rise of NewJeans in Japan…morning shows are already covering their controversies, they’ve made it!…points towards Jersey Club and Jersey-lite interpretations enjoying space in contemporary J-pop’s palette. Helping that…well, the number of producers who were already dabbling in the style over the last decade, some of whom I remember seeing at R3LL’s Tokyo shows back in the day, or Kenmochi Hidefumi, arguably the most intriguing J-pop producer going who dipped into way before it became something to mimic. However it bubbles up, I think seeing independent upcomers like LANA use it so well is just a preview of more mutations on it.

Official HIGE DANdism — “Subtitle”

An absolute god-level hot take I tend to agree with, courtesy of askaryohukkatsu on Twitter — to paraphrase, King Gnu pretends to do weird things but just makes J-pop, while Official HIGE DANdism pretends to be a normal J-pop groups but does deeply weird things². Muah! And “Subtitle,” a massive end-of-year hit that doubled (and benefitted) from being the theme to mega-hit drama silent bares that out. What are these tempo changes, what is up with all these electronic touches, what the fuck is this breakdown!? That this is a biggie-sized success is thrilling, a reminder of how adventerous J-pop heavyweights can get. A lot of groups that proved huge at the same time as Higedan are also entering their “imperial period,” and I think we will see a bit more freewheelin’ creativity from acts who have a runway to work with.

Zutomayo Featuring Mori Calliope — “Kira Killer”

Virtual YouTubers remain both big business and nascent, with many starting to dip into other fields as this area transforms into an anime-ed up evolution of “talent.” Despite a growing number of VTubers getting into music, none have thus far truly broken through to the mainstream. I think it will take some time, but collaborations with IRL artists like this one — which finds Vocaloid-influenced band Zutomayo teaming up with popular English VTuber Mori Calliope —  offer the most likely way for some digi-creator to take the next step forward. Expect a lot of them (and, if you are looking for a good bet, place your. money on Peanuts-kun shocking the world).

&TEAM — “Under the skin”

At the end of 2020, I wondered if the sudden influx of K-pop companies into Japan would drastically alter the nation’s music market. This corner has only become more crowded — JYP’s NiziU just sold out Tokyo Dome a few weeks back with plans for another reality show crafting a big-stage-eyeing group on the horizon, Lapone Entertainment’s growing stable of boys continues to shine sales and tie-up wise, XG…uhhhhh has great YouTube numbers³ despite zero actual impact in the real world unless they hid all their influence in, like, Ibaraki?, and HYBE has just begun their Japan-centric efforts with the so-far-well-received &TEAM.

Based on pure sales and attention in Japan, they’ve succeeded, and have offered up a whole new collection of names and companies playing in the J-pop fields⁴. But when the prospect of Korean music companies playing a more active role in Japan's industry first rose its head, the intrigue wasn't in if their groups would do well in Japan. Of course they would! K-pop still kills with sales! What was interesting was could they take Japanese groups internationally. So far, the answer has been a resounding "nope" largely because...turns out they just wanted to make a huge profit in Japan. More power to them and their pockets, but seeing NiziU or J01 reduced to "and featuring foreign acts like..." on K-pop events feels pretty anti-climatic. I bet &TEAM has a huge 2023...in Japan, and end up on some MNET show as a "let's see what's going on over there!" segment along with an early KCON LA set.

LE SSERAFIM — “FEARLESS” (Live On Japanese Morning Show Edition)

ANTI-CLIMATIC, ANTI-CLIMATIC

Well, maybe the best way Korean companies can introduce Japanese artists to the world is…through their actual main K-pop projects. LE SSERAFIM seems poised alongside NewJeans to pick up a lot of English media attention over the next 12 months. Which means…we might get to hear American music journalists wrestle with Produce 48. We can only hope.

Ado — Livestream Where She Watches Her Own Saitama Super Arena Performance And Makes Fun Of It

Lolz Ado is going to do a lot more stuff like this to showcase her personality…which is great! For all the mystery and hiding-behind-cartoons, she’s pretty comfortable hosting a livestream and laughing at herself.

Yukichi Kasaku/men — “CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON”

This is Brutus magazine’s pick, based on their “Who’s Next?” issue from last month. I’m personally more inclined to believe that, after a largely quiet year, Hakushi Hasegawa returns to blow minds with whatever they have cooking. But Yukichi Kasaku/men exists on the same artistic plane as Hasegawa (constant collaborators!), and expect one if not both to really jump forward in 2023.

Black Biscuits — “Timing”

There’s still a lot of neon-colored juice to be squeezed from ‘80s Japanese music, and don’t expect the music industry at home in Japan or abroad to stop anytime soon⁵. Still...at some point the country's retro-fixation has to pivot deeper into the '90s. As much as I sit here waiting for Pizzicato Five to be cool again, I think it's more likely pop like "Timing" influences a new wave of creators in Japan looking to latch on to fashionable nostalgia that also sounds fun. Black Biscuits reunited for a TV performance last year, which excited seemingly everyone online. They then shared their music on subscription streaming, which helped shoot it into viral charts for a bit. There’s excitement within Black Biscuits’ music…and some somewhat good (har har) timing, as they were a group built specifically to take Asia by storm. I mean, a variety show put them together so maybe the motivation wasn’t 100% there, but speaking of…

Baby Mic Candy — “TRY”

…the most exciting story in J-pop remains how it’s starting to interact with other pop industries across Asia. Thailand offers the most immediate thrills, with notable city pop meetings and Thai rappers linking up with the worst YouTubers. Quartet Baby Mic Candy is most interesting, though, because it is a mixed group featuring two Thai members and two Japanese members…overseen by Sony Music Japan, but thus far focused on the Thai market. A new step forward for this continental collaboration.

Kessoku Band — “Ano Band”

Wouldn’t be a Make Believe Melodies’ post without a Bocchi The Rock! segment. Just wait until the standalone post…

Anime of course will remain the main engine for providing musical hits, but Kessoku Band — and their impressive first-week sales — also signals the continuing health and overall strength of “virtual artists” in Japan. In the West, “virtual artists” like FN Meka and assorted rapping apes inspired terror in music writers and set off scam alarm bells in others. In Japan they…continue to just be cartoon avatars, whether playing Shimokitazawa-worthy rock, breezy dance-pop, throwback rap, or idoly idol music. This is an established and downright seasoned corner of J-pop, and one only revealing new layers year after year.

SixTONES — “Mascara (Emotional Afrobeats Remix)”

I was invited to watch SixTONES perform at Yokohama Arena last weekend, and what stood out watching the show was how versatile the group’s music could be. I have a pretty set image of what Johnny’s music sounds like in my mind — cheery, cheesy, a little too sweet for its own good — and they certainly fall into that zone sometimes. Yet they dabbled in a lot, and not in the “SMAP got a song buried on one of Yasutaka Nakata’s extra USB sticks” way of yesteryear. Late in the show, they busted out this “Emotional Afrobeats Remix,” which remains one of the wildest things to emerge out of J-pop at large in 2022.

Japanese music gets a lot of guff online for “not being on top of global music trends,” which is a whole complicated issue on its own (music doesn’t instantly become “good” just because it jumps on what is popular) but also…not totally true? Well, it’s totally not in communication with Spanish-language music, which is definitely a blind spot…but also, as the industry has embraced (or accepted) the realities of streaming, it has had to actually look outward, and interact with the rest of the world. I think more “Emotional Afrobeats Remixes” are coming, as people in the industry pick up on global developments and play around with them more…and hopefully invite others to collaborate.

Keisuke Kuwata Featuring Motoharu Sano, Masanori Sera, Char And Goro Noguchi — “Jidaikure No Rock ‘n’ Roll Band”

Of course, let’s end with the most important reminder — old people need jams too, and Japan has a lot of greying ears. Thank goodness for aging supergroups like this, providing the gentle jolt of memories, rock and fading-hippie politics that a generation approaching retirement — kidding! — can settle down with. The stars of yesteryear aren’t going anywhere, and are only going to get louder as demographics lean their way.

Written by Patrick St. Michel (patrickstmichel@gmail.com)
Twitter — @mbmelodies

Follow the Best of 2023 Spotify Playlist Here!

1. Just to get some good ol’ fashion hatin’ into this post…worst song of 2022 by a wide margin, maybe the shittiest J-pop hit of the last five years.

2. Especially rings true when you realize the creative mind behind King Gnu has millennium parade to do actually weird things with.

3. OK, just a little more hatin’ because it’s a Friday night and I’m treating myself…this group suuuuuuuuucks so far. Thank god the sonic palette of K-pop and K-pop-adjacent girl groups is changing because this stuff was stale three years ago.

4. Also have potentially pushed LDH to the edge…maybe LIL LEAGUE can save them?

5. Was going to link to that tweet that was like “if you are really into ‘80s Japanese music as a man you are whack” some ambient record store made but they deleted it! Cowardly, stand by your little tweets!